Technology and employment
Technological change has been redefining the workplace since the Industrial Revolution, but the speed of technological innovation and the scale at which it will disrupt the current nature of employment are entirely unprecedented.
New technologies like robotics and artificial intelligence will radically change the nature of employment. They will allow for improvements in productivity, efficiency, safety and convenience. They will also create downward pressures on wages and an urgent need for education and retraining.
In The Second Machine Age, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) asked what jobs will be left once computing power enables inexpensive, computerized solutions to problems that previously required costly human engagement.
Some estimate that about sixty percent of all occupations have at least thirty percent of activities that can be automated based on currently available technologies.
In The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerization? Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne estimate that forty-seven percent of total United States employment is in the high-risk category of potentially becoming automated over the next several decades.
By replacing human workers, machines often reduce labor costs, liability, management duties and space requirements.It will be hard for employers to resist these increased efficiencies.
Target, CVS and Kohl’s are all deploying more self-checkout machines. More than 150 companies like Amazon, Zippin, BingoBox and Standard Cognition are developing cashier-free retail options.Walmart is deploying floor-cleaning robots. In the financial sector, “robo-advisors” are already making investment decisions which means that wealth managers everywhere may soon need to find new work. Journalists will be replaced on a massive scale. Algorithms already exist that can write articles and even books with minimal human involvement. By the end of 2021, it is expected that machines will publish a fifth of all business content.
Educational systems have not kept pace with the changing nature of work or technology, resulting in many employers already saying they cannot find enough workers with the skills they need.In a McKinsey survey of young people and employers, forty percent of employers said “lack of skills” was the main reason for entry-level job vacancies. The survey identified gaps in technical skills such as STEM subject degrees and deficiencies in soft skills such as communication, teamwork and punctuality.
Today, thirty to forty-five percent of the working-age population around the world is underutilized—unemployed, inactive, or underemployed.
Advances in automation will increase these numbers.
Greater interaction between humans and machines will increase productivity but will require different skills, different wage models and different types of investments in education to allow workers to acquire the skills required to interface and keep pace with changing technology. Increased emphasis will need to be placed on job creation, digital jobs in particular.
Brynjolfsson emphasizes that the commitment to education needs to continue. He also argues that lifelong learning will be essential for people to keep pace with the changing demands of roles constantly being reshaped by technology. “We have to reinvent education and reskilling,” he says.
Brynjolfsson says, “People are going to have to take it upon themselves to more aggressively learn these skills… it’s going to be a case of lifelong learning and continuously reskilling.”
Machines are not good at everything. As Brynjolfsson notes, machines are not very good at motivating, nurturing, caring for, or comforting people.
According to the research firm Oxford Economics, employers’ top priorities already include relationship building, cultural sensitivity, brain-storming, co-creativity and the ability to manage diverse employees—essentially, the right-brained skills of social interaction.Meg Bear, Oracle group vice president, says;
“Empathy is the critical 21st century skill.”
As technology continues to advance, the demand for these uniquely human skills is only going to increase.
Those who can build and maintain relationships, collaborate and lead and those who can engage clients with humor, energy, sensitivity and generosity will be tomorrow’s most sought-after employees.
